Treasury Yields Vary

Published February 14, 2025

Treasury yields varied this week as investors digested the latest economic data. Yields fell later in the week following reports that inflation remains a concern, which suggested the Federal Reserve may hold off on further rate decreases.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of dozens of everyday consumer goods, increased 0.5% in January, higher than economists’ forecast of 0.3%. The year-over-year CPI rose to 3.0% in January, up from 2.9% in December, and surpassed economists’ projections of 2.9%.

“The long national nightmare of inflation is not over yet for consumers, businesses, and investors,” said chief economist at FWDBONDS, Christopher Rupkey. “There could be some seasonality that pushes prices up at a faster clip in January, but today the news for [Federal Reserve] officials is all bad.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of February 10 at 4.50% and traded as high as 4.66% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.69% and traded as high as 4.86% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment decreased by 7,000 to 213,000 for the week ending February 8. This was below economists’ estimate of 215,000. Continuing claims fell by 36,000 to 1.85 million.

“Jobless claims on an initial basis are relatively healthy,” said lead economist at Glassdoor, Daniel Zhao. “They are similar to where we have seen them in past years, but we do see that continuing claims is a little bit higher compared to where it was last year at this point.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of February 10 at 4.48% while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.70%.