Treasury Yields Fluctuate

Published February 21, 2025

Treasury yields varied this week as investors digested the latest economic data. Yields trended lower toward the end of the week as the latest employment data showed an uptick in unemployment claims filed.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent meeting. At the meeting, policy makers agreed they would need to see further progress of inflation coming down and assess the impact of any potential tariffs before considering lowering interest rates. 

“Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate,” the minutes stated.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of February 17 at 4.47% and traded as high as 4.58% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.69% and traded as high as 4.80% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment increased by 5,000 to 219,000 for the week ending February 15. This was above economists’ estimate of 215,000. Continuing claims rose by 24,000 to 1.87 million.

"The current round of unprecedented belt-tightening and budget cuts and layoffs in Washington have not become a reality yet in terms of showing up in the national statistics," said chief economist at FWDBONDS, Christopher Rupkey. "But actions taken in the early days of the new administration may yet bring about a broader economic slowdown and is frankly a risk factor that economists did not see at the start of the year."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of February 17 at 4.43% while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.68%.