Treasury Yields Fall

Published February 28, 2025

Treasury yields fell throughout the week as the markets analyzed economic data indicating signs of a slowdown. Yields remained lower towards the end of the week despite initial jobless claims remaining relatively steady.

On Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that the revised estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a monetary measure of the market value of all goods and services produced in a specific time period, increased at a 2.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2024. This was in line with economists’ expectations and lower than the 3.1% growth achieved in the third quarter of 2024.

“Real GDP was revised up by less than 0.1% from the advance estimate released last month, primarily reflecting upward revisions to government spending and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending and investment,” noted the BEA in its report.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of February 24 at 4.43% and traded as low as 4.25% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.68% and traded as low as 4.51% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment increased by 22,000 to 242,000 for the week ending February 22. This was above economists’ estimates of 225,000. Continuing claims fell by 5,000 to 1.86 million.

“This report showed a healthy gain, but not the first ripples of what likely will be a major wave of unemployment claims, both from layoffs in the federal workforce and at companies such as Starbucks and Southwest,” said corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, Robert Frick.

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of February 24 at 4.22% while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.51%.