Treasury Yields Vary

Published March 14, 2025

Treasury yields dipped early in the week as investors evaluated the latest economic data, which showed that inflation improved from a month ago. Yields recovered later in the week following reports of unemployment claims declining, indicating a resilient labor market.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of dozens of everyday consumer goods, increased 0.2% in February, lower than economists’ forecast of 0.3%. The year-over-year CPI rose to 2.8% in February, down from 3.0% in January and below economists’ projections of 2.9%.

“It is worth remembering that this may be the calm CPI report before the storm,” said chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, Seema Shah. “Not only does the Fed need to wait for tariff policy clarity, but once tariff implementation arrives it is likely to bring at least some price increases, with the inflation picture potentially getting uglier as the months go on. The Fed — and markets — are not yet in the clear.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of March 10 at 4.30% and traded as high as 4.36% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.60% and traded as high as 4.67% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment decreased by 2,000 to 220,000 for the week ending March 8. This was less than the 225,000 claims analysts expected. Continuing claims decreased by 27,000 to 1.87 million.

“The very low trend in claims is unlikely to last much longer,” said chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Samuel Tombs. “We continue to expect weekly initial jobless claims to average 250,000 in April.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of March 10 at 4.32% while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.62%.